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TPG’s Market Share May Be In Decline

TPG could be experiencing a decline in market share as the rollout of the NBN continues to accelerate.

UBS analyst Tom Beadle said that, even though market share gains “have almost been a given” for the telco in the past, TPG’s market share may have shrunk more recently.

“We estimate TPG’s market share could have fallen by [circa] 1 per cent over the 12 months to December 2016. Recent data from the ACCC and competitors suggests TPG’s market share may have declined further in the June half,” Beadle said (via The Australian Financial Review).

This decline may be linked to the primarily regional and rural rollout of the NBN so far, while TPG is more dominant in metropolitan areas. According to Beadle, TPG’s share of the NBN market is “roughly in line” with its share of the broadband market overall when adjusting for this fact.

UBS has downgraded its forecasts for TPG’s 2017-18 EBITDA by 4% to $823 million.

In TPG’s half-year results for the period ending January 31, 2017, the telco reported a 11% increase in profit to $224 million and an 8% rise in EBITDA to $473.4 million. TPG and iiNet added 112,000 new NBN services during the period for a total of 388,000 NBN customers.

TPG will release its full-year results next week.

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