Apple is set to reclaim its title as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time in more than a decade, driven by a surge in iPhone sales and a renewed upswing in China following a green light from the Chinese Government.

The shift marks a significant setback for Samsung, which is facing mounting pressure from Motorola in the budget segment and from Apple at the premium end.

According to Counterpoint Research, the spike in demand stems from the latest iPhone lineup and a wave of consumers upgrading devices they originally purchased during COVID lockdowns. The iPhone 17 series, released in September, has seen strong performance across Australia, the United States, and China.

In China, extensive marketing efforts have helped accelerate Apple’s momentum, prompting a double-digit year-over-year jump in sales. This upswing is expected to push Apple past Samsung Electronics in global market share.

Counterpoint forecasts iPhone shipments to rise 10% in 2025, more than double Samsung’s expected 4.6% growth. The broader smartphone market is projected to expand by 3.3%, with Apple securing an estimated 19.4% share—its first return to the No. 1 spot since 2011.

“The key driver behind this upgraded outlook is the smartphone replacement cycle reaching its tipping point,” explained Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang. “Consumers who bought phones during the Covid-19 boom are now ready to upgrade. On top of that, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, and many of those users are also likely to move to new models.”

Looking ahead, Wang expects Apple not only to maintain its lead but to widen it. A foldable iPhone and a lower-cost iPhone 17e are both slated for 2026, followed by a major design overhaul planned for 2027, as previously reported by Bloomberg.

Given current trends, Counterpoint anticipates Apple will hold onto the top position through 2029.

Apple announced last month that sales are already exceeding expectations, with holiday-quarter revenue projected to approach a record US$140 billion.