Global demand for personal computers ticked up in early 2026, but analysts warn the rebound may be fleeting as rising component costs threaten to derail momentum.

New data from Omdia shows shipments of notebooks, tablets and desktop PCs rose 3.2% year-on-year, reaching 64.8 million units. Lenovo tightened its grip on the top spot, shipping 16.5 million units and capturing a commanding 25.5% market share.

HP held onto second place with 12.1 million units (18.7%), despite a noticeable decline in key markets, while Dell continued its steady climb, shipping 10.3 million units to secure third place with a 15.9% share.

Further down the leaderboard, Apple shipped 7.1 million units for an 11% share, buoyed by strong MacBook sales, while ASUS posted solid growth, moving 4.6 million units and claiming 7.1% of the market.

The broader market showed uneven strength. Notebook shipments rose modestly by 2.6% to 50.8 million units, while desktops outperformed with a 5.4% jump to 14 million units.

But beneath the surface, warning signs are flashing.

Much of the growth was driven by vendors rushing shipments ahead of expected cost increases, as well as ongoing upgrades tied to the Windows 10 replacement cycle. That urgency may now be backfiring.

“With supply-chain pressures still building, Q1’s modest growth is likely to mark the high point for the year,” said Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Omdia.

Memory and storage prices are surging sharply—already up roughly five-fold and three-fold respectively since early 2025—while CPU costs are expected to rise a further 10–25% in the coming months. Analysts say the boom in AI data centres is diverting critical components away from consumer devices, tightening supply and driving up prices.

The result: shrinking margins for PC makers and inevitable price hikes for businesses and consumers.

Regional trends suggest the squeeze has already begun. Australian distributors appear to have stockpiled as much inventory as possible ahead of price rises, while Japan is showing early signs of decline, hit by supply constraints and weakening demand in the education sector.

Looking ahead, the outlook is increasingly uncertain. The education-driven surge that helped fuel growth through 2025 is losing momentum, and without policy support, analysts warn the market could contract in 2026.

For now, the numbers point to growth—but the industry may already be heading toward a slowdown.