Demand for foldable smart phone panels has stalled, and in 2025 the market is expected to contract for the first time.
Predictions from the Display Supply Chain Company (DSCC) in the US suggest that after massive annual growth of at least 40 per cent from 2019 (anyone remember the Royole FlexPai?) to 2023, the foldable display market will be on its heels in 2025 before picking up again in 2026.
It says the market will rise by five per cent in 2024 before going backwards by four per cent in 2025.
“Demand has stalled at around 22M panels,” DSCC said.
It said foldable smartphone display procurement was down 38 per cent year-on-year for the third quarter in 2024, and is expected to be down year-on-year for the next five quarters.
By way of explanation, it said “market leader Samsung is seeing slower than expected adoption of its Galaxy Z Flip 6 clamshell smartphone, as well as older foldables”.
“Panel shipments for Z Flip 6 in 2024 are expected to be more than 10 per cent below Z Flip 5 smartphone panel shipments in 2023.”
Galaxy Z Flip 5.
It said demand is concentrated in South Korea and Europe, and that Samsung flips had “struggled to gain adoption in the US and China”.
Demand remains highly concentrated on Korea and Europe and this product has struggled to gain adoption in the US and China.
“Samsung’s total foldable panel procurement is expected to be down over 20 per cent to the lowest level since 2021, with older models not performing well either,” DSCC said. “In fact, Samsung’s decline could have been worse if not for taking panels in Q4’24 for a model to be launched well into 2025.”
DSCC said Huawei’s second-half of 2024 panel procurement “has also disappointed, with its share slipping from 30 per cent in Q2’24 to 13 per cent in Q3’24”.
“A large reason for this is later introductions of the Mate X6 and Pocket 3 than their predecessors, which delayed panel shipments. Another reason is that Mate XT panel procurement is lower than expected.
“For these reasons, Huawei’s 2024 demand was downgraded by over 20 per cent vs. our last issue. Despite the reduction, Huawei will still enjoy over 90 per cent growth in foldable panel procurement in 2024, with its market share growing from 18 per centy to 33 per cent.”
Motorola Razr 50 Ultra.
DSCC noted that “the restrictions on importing advanced processors in China and on the most advanced semiconductor equipment has put Huawei at a significant disadvantage in flagship smartphones, and we see Huawei scaling back its foldable volume expectations as well as the number of models going forward until this situation is resolved.”
Another reason for the middling forecasts for 2024 and 2025, DSCC said, was the lack of a third player “to take on Huawei and Samsung”, which have cornered 70 per cent of the panel procurement market in 2023 and 2024.
“That share is likely going to increase in 2025 as a number of Chinese brands scale back their foldable efforts. Motorola and Honor are well behind with shares in high single digits.
“In addition, some smartphone brands are discontinuing their clamshell efforts due to lack of price elasticity, limited margins, modest sales and overheating concerns, while some smartphone brands are exiting the infolding market due to lack of demand from the high price points.”
DSCC said several brands were turning their focus away from form factors to AI.
