Netflix had barely announced its planned acquisition of key Warner assets when emails began landing in the inboxes of partners such as Foxtel.

The global streaming giant advised that HBO Max would eventually become a Netflix-branded offering—an update that immediately raised concerns among critics, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who questioned whether the move signalled the creation of a dominant streaming monopoly.

The deal grew even more complicated overnight when Paramount—owner of Network 10 in Australia and Paramount+—launched a hostile A$117 billion takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), a proposal that will bypass management and be taken directly to shareholders.

Paramount’s offer came just days after Netflix had reportedly received verbal approval from Warner leadership, a decision that angered figures such as David Ellison, son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison. Ellison, a close friend of Trump, argues that Paramount’s all-cash US$30-per-share offer—which includes Warner’s cable networks such as CNN, TBS and HGTV, along with the HBO Max streaming platform—provides far better value for shareholders.

Last night Netflix shares continued to slide, underscoring investor concerns about the deal and it’s impact on Netflix share value.

People close to the deal say that the decline in share price could impact the so-called stock portion of what it has agreed to pay WBD, meaning it might have to put up more money.

Netflix CEO  Ted Sarandos

Had the Netflix–Warner deal proceeded, industry observers questioned whether Paramount would need to aggressively expand into global sports rights to compete.

Even as Netflix was boasting to partners like Foxtel, doubts were already emerging about the risk of one company gaining overwhelming market dominance—potentially harming local players such as Stan and Foxtel.

On Wednesday night, President Trump signalled that Netflix’s acquisition was far from a done deal, stressing that federal approval was “a long way off, if it happens at all.”

“This deal has to go through a process, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters, warning that Netflix would command “a big market share,” which could pose regulatory problems. He also said he would be personally involved in the review.

Centre Pamount Skydance boss David Ellison

Under the current structure, Netflix intends to acquire Warner’s film and television studio and the HBO Max streaming service. The Ellisons, however, want the entire company—including all cable channels—folded into their bid. They plan to argue that the Netflix proposal would trigger significant “tax leakage” by splitting up the company, lowering its overall valuation for shareholders.

Inside Paramount and Skydance, some believe the WBD board underestimated how high the Ellisons were prepared to bid, partly because WBD CEO David Zaslav wanted to finalize a deal with his close friend, Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos.

Analysts have noted that a combined Netflix–HBO Max would control roughly 33% of the U.S. streaming market, surpassing Prime Video’s 21% share—likely inviting scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust division. Similar concerns would arise in markets such as the EU and Australia, where local services like Binge and Foxtel could lose valuable content rights.

Netflix has publicly insisted that it will “maintain Warner Bros.’ current businesses,” including HBO Max and HBO, theatrical film releases, and studio operations. However, emails sent to HBO Max partners suggest Netflix intends to consolidate all Warner assets under a single umbrella.

Aware of mounting political concerns,Netflix CEO  Sarandos reportedly met with Trump at the White House before the deal became public, arguing that the acquisition would not constitute a monopoly. Trump advised that Warner Bros. Discovery should sell to the highest bidder, and Sarandos left the meeting believing Netflix would not face immediate resistance. That confidence now appears misplaced.

Netflix founder Reed Hastings—long a major donor to Joe Biden and the Democratic Party—seems to have little influence in an administration now controlled by Republicans.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s bid benefits from the Ellison family’s longstanding relationship with Trump and its financial support of Trump-aligned initiatives. “We’re really here to finish what we started,” David Ellison said on CNBC.

Paramount says the takeover is fully backed by the Ellison family and RedBird Capital, along with A$84 billion in debt financing from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo. Equity commitments have also been secured from sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, as well as Affinity Partners, the private-equity firm run by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. All investors have agreed to waive voting rights—an arrangement that could help ease regulatory approval in Washington.

Some analysts believe the Ellisons may not need an aggressively hostile approach to block the Netflix–Warner merger if Trump remains supportive. Sources say Zaslav had already anticipated a rival bid and expected the Ellisons to raise their offer high enough to cover the US$2.8 billion breakup fee WBD would owe if it abandoned the Netflix agreement.