Amazon Prime day or more accurately Prime week next week will be the first with Donald Trump’s tariffs in the background. And it will be a complex affair.

For starters, the US tariff pause ends on July 9 which is during this period. This year the de minimis tax exemption for goods under US$800 shipped into the US no longer applies.

There are reports that many Chinese vendors selling to US customers already imported significant supplies into US warehouses long ago to avoid tariff charges.

At the same time, vendors will sell to Australian and other non US customers, presumably with reciprocal tariffs in some jurisdiction, and no restrictions in others. Where supplies come from could be anyone’s guess.

Will we see multi tier pricing, where customers are charged at different rates due to different tariff levels, or will Amazon attempt to “smooth prices over” to keep things simple?

In the end, will we get any decent figures out of Amazon as to how much tariffs were charged, given that Jeff Bezos has rejected detailing tariff costs on invoices at President Donald Trump‘s direction?

There is also the wildcard of some last-minute tariff changes as countries rush to meet the July 9 deadline.

Customers in tariff-impacted countries might opt to buy a lot of goods now in the hope they avoid definite tariffs next time around.

One report suggests US customers prioritise buying goods that in future would go up due to tariffs, ahead of those that won’t. That equates to prioritising Chinese goods ahead of US-made ones. Such clever little things, tariffs.

The cost of Amazon Prime Membership meanwhile could soon rise, according to Wall Street analysts.

The New York Post reports that J P Morgan is tipping the rise to take effect next year.

“J.P.Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth said last week in a research note that the bank thinks the Seattle-based e-commerce giant could raise the price of its popular Amazon Prime membership in 2026.”

A price rise could impact Australia severely as Amazon charges a relatively cheap amount for Prime here. Other jurisdictions already suffering price hikes of up to 43 percent (France).

In Australia Amazon charges $9.99 per month or $79 per year for Prime Membership, which is much cheaper than in the US where Prime costs $US139 annually.