Worldwide smartphone shipments are now expected to grow 5.8 per cent this year to 1.23 billion units, as opposed to a previous forecast of 4 per cent growth to 1.21 billion units.

The 12 per cent growth in the first quarter, followed by 9 per cent growth last quarter, is what led to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) to raise its forecast for the year in its latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report.

The segment that is expected to show strong growth is the affordable Android smartphone segment.

Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC, said that the growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1 per cent than iOS at 0.8 per cent. Apple’s softer growth is being attributed to increasing competition in China.

“The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets,” said Popal.

Apple Intelligence

At the other end of the price segment, the premium market will start to see an increasing number of GenAI-equipped smartphones being adopted.

IDC expects a staggering 344 per cent growth for GenAI smartphones capturing 18 per cent share of the total market by the end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features.

The GenAI segment is one that Apple could still make a mark with its new devices which are set to arrive next month. “There is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China,” noted Popal.

IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4 per cent year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence which was unveiled earlier this year and which is expected to reach devices in select markets this year.

One of the stumbling blocks to the growth of the premium GenAI smartphone segment is the price point at which they are offered. Most of the ones currently available in the market from the likes of Samsung and Motorola are priced at the upper end of the market.

The average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI-capable devices, forecasts IDC.

According to another global research firm Counterpoint Technology Market Research, the share of GenAI-equipped smartphone shipments to overall smartphone shipments will reach 11 per cent by 2024 and 43 per cent by 2027 to pass 550 million units in 2027, a nearly 4X growth.

The number of phones installed with GenAI features is expected to cross 1 billion by 2027.