The battle for Warner Bros Discovery is not over with politics and a Trump Family interest likely to favour Paramount over Netflix.

It was always the case that Comcast and Netflix would be in for a rough ride in seeking to buy Warner Bros Discovery. Comcast’s criticism of the MAGA movement was a factor against it from the start.

However, The New York Times reported early this week that private equity firm Affinity Parners had lined up President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner as an investor in Paramount. It suggests that there’s a diminished chance of Netflix clinching the deal.

The financial landscape involving Kushner, wife Ivanka and the Trump Family Trust is complex but it’s fair to say they wouldn’t waste money on Paramount unless it was a likely deal.

There were indications a week ago that Netflix was heading for rocky waters when it was reported that senior White House officials were homing in on anti-trust concerns.

The New York Post reported that the officials had already discussed launching a broader investigation of Netflix’s market power.

“Basically everyone agreed that Netflix presents unique antitrust concerns and if it won the bidding war it would be one long slog and touch off an investigation along the lines of those of Google and Amazon,” the Post quoted a government official saying.

President Trump was aware of this anti-trust issue when at the Kennedy Centre on the weekend, he questioned Netflix’s offer, saying it already enjoyed “a very big market share … it could be a problem”.

Then there’s the pedigree of Paramount. Chairman and CEO David Ellison is the son of Oracle billionaire cofounder Larry Ellison, a long-time Republican supporter, donor and ally of Trump. Ellison senior has given millions to the Republican cause, including $15 million in 2022 to a super-PAC supporting a Republican senator.

The situation is far from clear‑cut. A Paramount deal itself could trigger antitrust scrutiny.  Democrats are voicing security concerns over the company’s financial ties to Middle Eastern sovereign funds, says Forbes.

But it is clear that Paramount has no intention of giving up on the deal even though Netflix has forged a US$83bn deal to buy a large slice of Warner Bros Discovery. The agreement was approved by the boards of both companies, says The New York Times.

Undeterred, Paramount has up the bidding to US$108bn to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including its movie studio, the HBO Max streaming service and cable channels including CNN, the New York Times says.

Paramount is prepared to mount this as a hostile takeover, going directly to shareholders if the Warner Bros board does not agree.

President Trump says he will be involved in the decision on who buys Warner Bros Discovery. Further, a more president-friendly US Justice Department could be given the role of looking at anti-trust concerns.

While nothing is certain until a deal is inked, Paramount looks a strengthening bet.

Adding to these factors, there is the lure of the Trumps wielding some influence as investors over the direction of movie and streaming video content in all these studios. And that includes CNN with its long history of anti-Trump critiques.

And there’s film industry concern a Netflix win would see movies transition from theatres to streaming faster, hastening further the demise of cinema viewing.

You could say that this deal itself is the best show in town.