Nine Entertainment is plunging into a high-stakes, multibillion-dollar sports rights war, attempting to secure the NRL and English Premier League (EPL) broadcast packages despite staring down a crippling structural decline in traditional television advertising while also having to pay for the rights to the Olympics as far out as 2032.

The aggressive bidding spree has industry analysts questioning where the capital will come from.

Nine, which currently holds a market capitalization of approximately A1.46billion,and has already locked itself into a heavy financial commitment that includes A315 million deal for the Olympic Games spanning 2024 to 2032.

That single agreement has already swallowed up roughly 22% of the network’s entire market value.

Now, the broadcaster is reportedly preparing to double down on an even larger scale.

Matt Stanton Nine Entertainment CEO

Now Nine is attempting to navigate a treacherous financial trifecta:

Olympic Games A$315 Million Secured (2024–2032)

English Premier League (EPL) A$600 Million+ Bidding (6 years from 2028)

National Rugby League (NRL) ~A$800 Million/year Bidding (Targeting A$4Bn over 5 years)

The NRL, led by Australian Rugby League Commission Chairman Peter V’landys, is fiercely hunting a blockbuster A$4 billion, five-year deal to surpass the AFL’s annual broadcast revenue.

V’landys has successfully orchestrated a cutthroat bidding war, luring Nine, Foxtel, Seven Network, and Amazon Prime into the arena.

Nine’s aggressive play comes at a time when the network’s core revenue engine is actively eroding.

Media agency forecasts paint a grim picture for traditional free-to-air (FTA) linear television:

Shriveling Market Share:

In 2013, traditional TV channels captured 60% of all Australian advertising revenue. By 2023, that number plummeted to 20%.

PwC’s Australian Entertainment and Media Outlook projects linear FTA ad revenues will drop from historic highs to just A$3.5 billion by 2028—representing a microscopic 11% of the total advertising market.

While Nine attempts to claw back revenue through digital avenues like Broadcast Video-on-Demand (BVOD), FAST channels, and automated programmatic ad insertion, analysts speaking to ChannelNews admit the network appears trapped in a severe structural decline.

The EPL ‘Backup’ Strategy
Industry insiders reveal that Nine’s relentless pursuit of a A$100 million annual extension for Stan’s EPL rights is actually a desperate defensive maneuver.

Nine fears losing the crown jewel of its sports portfolio—the NRL—to Foxtel.

If Foxtel edges Nine out, the network will be left relying heavily on the EPL to retain subscribers for Stan.

However, this strategy is highly volatile, EPL matches are predominantly broadcast in the dead of night in Australia, offering limited appeal to a broader demographic.

Furthermore, Nine’s EPL ambitions face a catastrophic threat from global sports streaming giant DAZN.

Speculation is mounting that DAZN could back Foxtel in a sweeping bid for the EPL rights, effectively starving Nine’s Stan of its soccer audience.

Unlike the traditional, high-premium subscription models favored by Australian networks, DAZN is pioneering an “open-access” ecosystem.

In Japan, DAZN has shook the industry by broadcasting all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026 by choosing to coexist with free-to-air broadcasters rather than enforcing a strict paywall.

“Unless more people are exposed to sports, the market will inevitably shrink,” warned Yu Sasamoto, CEO of DAZN Japan and APAC Business Development.

“Over-the-top platforms should not hold exclusive broadcast rights. It would also be unwise to shut off opportunities for people… to discover the platform.”

This philosophy stands in stark contrast to recent consumer backlashes, such as when Netflix locked the World Baseball Classic behind a paywall, cutting off millions of fans from free-to-air access.

The Final Play: Could Seven or Ten Steal Nine’s Crown?

As the situation remains highly fluid, the most likely marketplace outcome could spell disaster for Nine’s current sports dominance.

Industry sources suggest Foxtel could purchase the entire NRL rights package outright, satisfying the federal government’s anti-siphoning rules by sub-licensing key marquee assets.

Under this scenario, a rival network like Seven or Network Ten could step forward to pay Foxtel roughly A$200 million annually for a package consisting of the State of Origin, the Grand Final, and select weekly games—with Foxtel handling the actual broadcast production.

If this eventuates, Nine could find itself entirely boxed out of the sport that has anchored its ratings for decades, leaving it holding the bag on a declining broadcast model with dwindling capital to recover.