IHS Ups Autonomous Vehicle Sales Estimates
IHS Automotive has upped its estimates for autonomous vehicle sales following recent developments in the industry.
IHS forecasts global sales of nearly 21 million autonomous vehicles by 2035, which it states is influenced by recent research and development by automotive OEMs, supplier and technology companies investing in the area.
“The new forecast is also based on a wave of recent developments and investments in this sector of the market, as well as activity within various regulatory environments,” IHS states.
IHS states the US will lead the global market in initial autonomous vehicle deployment and adoption, with Japan to simultaneously ramp up industry coordination and investment ahead of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics.
“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” Egil Juliussen, PhD and IHS Automotive director of research, commented.
“Our new forecast reflects a 43 per cent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets.”
New mobility solutions, such as ride-sharing and car-sharing programs, increasing investment in autonomy by OEMs, suppliers and technology companies, along with research and development centres underway and improved efficiencies are expected to impact the further proliferation of automotive technologies, IHS states.
”Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” Jeremy Carlson, IHS Automotive principal analyst, commented.
“IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”
The US market is expected to see the earliest deployment of autonomous vehicles, with China to lead in technology deployment volumes, while major markets in Western Europe will maintain industry technology leadership through the premium segment.
Continued challenges to autonomous vehicle deployment include potential technology risks for software reliability and cybersecurity, with IHS noting that both are showing improvements as technology evolves and industry recognises the threat, along with implementation of local and federal guidelines and regulatory standards, as well as a legal framework for self-driving cars.
“The future fleets of driverless vehicles will provide mobility services for anyone and anything, creating exciting and new opportunities for the automotive industry,” Juliussen stated.
“Increasing competition from the high-tech and other industries is accelerating the auto industry’s autonomous software and cybersecurity development efforts.”