Australian retailers face a difficult peak trading season as cost-of-living pressures, renewed inflation and competition from offshore marketplaces force consumers to scrutinise every purchase, according to Deloitte’s Retail Report 2026.

The findings have significant implications for discretionary retailers such as JB Hi-Fi, The Good Guys, Harvey Norman and Officeworks, which rely heavily on consumer electronics, appliances and technology sales during Black Friday and Christmas.

Deloitte found 77% of Australians are changing their shopping behaviour because of cost-of-living pressures.

Some 34% expect to spend less during the holiday season, 32% intend to switch to cheaper products and 11% plan to delay purchases.

However, the outlook is not entirely negative.

Around 26% expect to buy more goods and services, while 70% are prepared to pay full price to secure the exact product they want. Product quality remains the biggest purchase driver, nominated by 26%, ahead of value for money at 16%, customer experience at 15% and brand trust at 12%.

This suggests Australians are becoming deal hunters rather than simply abandoning premium products. For JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys, the opportunity is to combine competitive pricing with recognised brands, immediate availability, knowledgeable service and reliable fulfilment.

Promotional timing will be critical. Retailers expect Click Frenzy, Black Friday and Cyber Monday to generate 52% of holiday revenue, with Black Friday alone accounting for 23%.

Consumers, however, expect only 23% of their spending to occur during these promotional events, with 45% planned for early December.

Black Friday sale.

The mismatch creates a major inventory and margin risk.

Heavy discounting in November could cannibalise more profitable December sales.

Deloitte found 86% of retailers regard Christmas as profitable or highly profitable, compared with 76% for Black Friday and 59% for Cyber Monday.

Physical stores remain important, with 61% of consumers rating bricks-and-mortar retail as their preferred channel. At the same time, 60% expect to conduct at least 20% of their holiday shopping online. This plays to the strengths of retailers such as JB Hi-Fi, which can integrate large store networks with online ordering, click and collect and rapid delivery.

The biggest competitive threat is coming from global marketplaces. Some 48% of Australians often or always consider offshore marketplaces when shopping online, while 79% of retailers are concerned about their impact. Price is the main attraction, followed by product range, easy discovery and delivery.

Deloitte estimates offshore marketplaces generated almost A$12 billion in Australian sales during 2025, up 20%, with that figure forecast to reach A$18 billion in 2026.

Despite the pressure, 75% of retailers expect holiday sales growth and 71% anticipate margin growth, although both measures have weakened. Deloitte forecasts household consumption growth will slow from 2.3% in 2025–26 to just 1.3% in 2026–27, with per-capita consumption effectively flat.

For CE and appliance retailers, the message is clear: growth remains available, but winning it will require disciplined promotions, competitive pricing, strong product availability and service that offshore marketplaces cannot easily replicate.