Although Apple has rolled out its Apple Intelligence platform over the last few weeks, it has failed to stem declining iPhone sales in some countries.

Ming-Chi Kuo, an industry analyst, has said that iPhone sales have significantly declined in mainland China.

Worryingly for Apple, Kuo predicts the fall in iPhone sales there might not reverse anytime soon, according to Gizmochina.

Kuo’s report reveals that iPhone shipments in China fell by 10-12% year-over-year in December 2024.

One of the possible reasons for declining sales is that the iPhone 16 did not introduce major hardware innovations compared to the previous model.

As a countermeasure to the falling sales, Kuo notes that Apple has taken a cautious approach toward 2025 production planning for iPhones. Projections for the first half of 2025 (1H25) indicate a year-on-year shipment decline of about 6%.

The first quarter of 2025 will see relatively flat shipment, which Kuo attributes to preemptive stocking in January ahead of anticipated tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. The second quarter is expected to see a more prominent dip.

iPhone 16 Pro.

Later on in the year, Apple iPhone 17 devices which are expected to be released in the second half of the year might feature eSIM-only designs, which might further impede sales as carrier support for eSIMs remain limited in China.

The launch of a cheaper iPhone SE4 in mid-2025 might not be enough to turn around Apple’s iPhone performance in China.

In 2024, Kuo estimated iPhone shipments totaled approximately 220 million units, with a slight increase to 220–225 million in 2025.

Shipments to China of foreign-branded smartphones, including Apple’s new iPhone, fell by 47.4% in November last year from a year earlier, according to data from a government-affiliated research firm China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT).

It noted that foreign brand shipments decreased to 3.04 million units from 5.769 million units a year earlier.

The decline follows October’s 44.25% year-on-year drop in foreign smartphone shipments, reported Reuters.

In the second quarter of last year, Apple briefly fell out of China’s top five smartphone vendors before regaining its spot in the third quarter. Its smartphone sales in China still fell 0.3% in Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year, while one of its main rivals in China, Huawei, saw its sales increase 42%, according to research firm IDC.