As the global economic crisis worsens, smartphone manufacturers are expected to ship 70 million fewer units in 2023 than previously forecast.
According to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast for International Data Corporation, shipments will recover 2.8 per cent from 2022 (which has seen a decline of 9.1 per cent) to 1.27 billion.
This is 70 million fewer units than IDC’s previous forecast.
“We believe the global smartphone market will remain challenged through the first half of 2023, with hopes that recovery will improve around the middle of next year and growth across most regions in the second half,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers.
“Rising costs are an obvious concern for the smartphone market and adjacent consumer technology categories, but we believe most of this reduced demand will be pushed forward and will support global growth in late 2023 and beyond.
“A device refresh cycle continues to build in many challenged emerging markets while developed markets have offset rising costs with increased promotional activity, more attractive trade-in offers, and extended financing plans. This has supported growth in the high-end of the market despite the economic headwinds.”
Although the market is slowing down, average selling prices are rising, as consumers choose premium models with the hope of not upgrading for three or four years.
“Smartphone ASPs are expected to grow for the third consecutive year [in 2022] as average selling prices will reach US$413 [A$607] up 6.4 per cent from $388 [A$571] in 2021,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC.
“The last time the market witnessed ASPs surpass $400 was in 2011, when the market displayed over 60 per cent shipment growth.
“Moreover, iOS unit share will reach 18.7 per cent (the highest of any forecast year), which is a driving force behind the high ASP growth we currently see in 2022.”
