According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), PC shipments are projected to rise by 3.7% or 261.4 million shipments year over year in 2024.

The Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker forecasts the shipment volume will be higher than the 259.6 million in 2018, however, still will not reach 2019 levels.

Despite the current optimistic outlook, the industry has obstacles to overcome like overall softening of the market, corporations pushing device purchases forward, and education budgets that are not recovering as well as hoped in many markets.

Due to all of these factors, the forecast for shipments in 2023 is expected to drop 13.7% year over year to 252 million units.

“Consumer demand remains tepid at best as the segment continues to face economic headwinds,” said research manager for IDC Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers Jitesh Ubrani.

“Consumer demand for PCs also faces challenges from other devices including smartphones, consoles, tablets, and more, marking 2023 as the year with the greatest annual decline in consumer PC shipments since the category’s inception.”

Within the processor segment, the IDC says they have noted some of the most significant shifts in, “commercial PC history with AMD reaching 11% share in 2022 and Apple just over 5% in 2022”.

In part due to organisations waiting to see when AI-capable PCs become available and that the hybrid work environment is still prevalent, the IDC says they are hearing that many corporations are attempting to be thoughtful when purchasing PC by listening to their employee preferences inclusive of specifically brands, types of PCs, and whether numerous PCs are required within the current hybrid work environment.

“These days it’s hard to have a conversation that doesn’t involve AI and where and how to invest,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile and Consumer Device Trackers.

“Commercial PCs will remain interesting for years to come with technology advances adding an extra element to decision making, but it’s important to remember that Windows 10 end of support comes in 2025 and this will drive commercial refresh regardless of whether companies are waiting on more advanced PCs or just needing to update an aging installed base.”

“It seems clear that Apple sees an opportunity to continue its growth in the commercial segment and this will be an angle to watch closely going forward,” Reith concluded.