For years, Google Chrome has been the undisputed king of web browsers, but how will Google survive without this core piece of technology?
With a staggering 66.29% market share, Chrome isn’t just a browser, it’s a gateway to Google’s entire ecosystem, from search ads to AI-driven results.
But, due to a landmark antitrust ruling by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), Chrome’s future under Google is in jeopardy.
The DOJ wants Google to divest Chrome in a bid to dismantle its search dominance.
But here’s the million-dollar question – if you strip Google of Chrome, does it actually fix the monopoly problem?
Breaking Up Big Tech
The DOJ’s argument is straightforward – Google’s dominance in search is propped up by its control over Chrome.
By making Google Search the default and paying companies like Apple and Mozilla to do the same, it has created an environment where smaller search engines struggle to compete.
Judge Amit Mehta’s ruling in August 2024 confirmed that Google had maintained an illegal monopoly in search and search advertising.
Now, the proposed solution is for Google to sell off Chrome and stop paying for preferential treatment.
But here’s where things get tricky. As Professor of Competition Law and Regulation Konstantinos Stylianou put it, “If you don’t have a good remedy, do you even have an antitrust case?”
Google argues that forcing a sale of Chrome won’t change the fact that people choose its search engine because it’s the best.
Even if Google is forced to divest, what’s stopping users from simply setting Google as their default search engine on any new browser?
However, the sale of Chrome will inevitably disrupt Google’s search advertising model, forcing the company to rethink its approach to digital dominance.
Who Would Buy Chrome and What Would They Do With It?
When Chrome goes up for sale, who’s buying? The obvious answer is Amazon, the e-commerce giant that already controls massive amounts of online commerce data through Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Owning a major web browser could give Amazon a new entry point into the search market, allowing it to steer users toward its own products, services, and advertising network.
Another potential contender is Apple.
Safari already commands 18.01% of the market and dominates mobile browsing in Australia, with 43.5% of searches.
Apple has also been steadily building its own search capabilities within iOS, positioning itself as a stronger rival to Google.
But both companies are already in regulators’ crosshairs, meaning Chrome’s acquisition could invite even more scrutiny.
Then there’s the AI angle.
Companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Perplexity AI are experimenting with AI-driven search.
If Chrome were to be reimagined as an AI-first browser, it could reshape how people navigate the internet.
However, AI search tools still rely on traditional engines like Google and Bing to function, raising another question of whether an AI-driven Chrome would be a real competitor or just another way for Google to maintain its grip?
With Chrome’s fate uncertain, could we see a resurgence of competitors like Firefox?
Mozilla’s browser has been slowly declining in market share, currently sitting at just 2.63%.
But when Google is forced to sell Chrome, it could create an opening for browsers that prioritise privacy and independence.
Or will we see an entirely new player emerge?
The internet has been through browser shifts before, just ask Netscape, Internet Explorer, or Opera.
If Chrome’s fate is up in the air, it’s possible we’re about to witness a new chapter in the battle for the internet’s entry point.
What Happens to Search Advertising and SEO?
Beyond browsers, Google’s dominance is also about ads.
With Chrome and Google Search so deeply intertwined, search advertising could see a major shake-up.
Right now, Google’s ad system operates like a high-stakes auction, where advertisers bid for placement in search results.
If Chrome were to be sold off and a different default search engine emerged, it could impact the flow of ad dollar.
In Australia, media companies heavily rely on Google for traffic.
A shift in search dominance could either create a more competitive environment for news sites and digital publishers or simply transfer power to another tech giant like Apple or Amazon.
What’s Next for Google?
For Google, this case could become a defining moment, much like Microsoft’s antitrust battle in the 1990s.
Back then, Microsoft was accused of monopolising the software market by bundling Internet Explorer with Windows.
The legal battle forced Microsoft to open up its platform, but it didn’t exactly kill its dominance.
Could we see a similar outcome with Google?
Even if Google loses Chrome, it still has Android, Youtube, and its massive AI investments to lean on.
The DOJ’s remedy might be a starting point, but whether it actually disrupts Google’s search empire remains to be seen.
Ultimately, the battle over Chrome is about more than just browsers, it’s about the future of search, online advertising, and who controls how we access information on the internet.
While regulators may be taking a victory lap, the reality is that Google’s grip on digital life isn’t disappearing anytime soon.
