The Nintendo Switch 2 is off to a record-breaking start but gamers may be waiting until next year before they can easily get their hands on the highly sought-after console.

Launched globally on June 5, the Switch 2 has already sold more than 3.5 million units in just four days, double the initial sales of its predecessor. Yet supply continues to lag behind surging demand, particularly in Japan where buyers are entering lottery-style draws for a chance to purchase one.

According to analysts from Toyo Securities and UBS, the scarcity may not ease until late autumn 2026 in Australia (spring in Japan).

They estimate that 6 million units were sold in June alone, projecting full-year sales of between 18 and 20 million consoles, which is well above Nintendo’s official forecast of 15 million for the current fiscal year.

The shortages are being worsened by high demand from existing Switch owners looking to upgrade, as well as lingering production constraints.

While semiconductor issues that plagued earlier console launches have eased, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa said in May the company is still working to “strengthen our production system” to meet global demand.

Retailers in Japan have implemented strict conditions to manage stock, including requiring customers to hold store-specific credit cards.

Meanwhile, scalpers are reportedly reselling units for up to twice the console’s RRP.

Geopolitical tensions could also affect pricing and availability.

Nintendo’s earnings forecast assumes a 10% US tariff on imports from Vietnam and Cambodia, which are where many of its consoles are manufactured, but recent comments from US President Donald Trump suggest a 20% tariff may be imposed.

Despite the hurdles, DFC Intelligence forecasts lifetime Switch 2 sales to exceed 100 million units by 2029, potentially making it the leading console of its generation.