Motorola is one of the few smartphone brands growing in Australia this year. It is gaining ground in the premium, affordable premium and wider Android segments while its two biggest rivals go backwards.

New IDC data, not yet released, but shown to carriers, shows Motorola sales in Australia up 7% this year. Apple sales are down 10% and Samsung sales are down 14%, and every brand is now relying on Black Friday for a lift.

Motorola has also moved ahead of Oppo for third place in the local market. The two brands have swapped third and fourth several times over the past two years. Motorola has pulled clear in 2026, helped by stronger carrier support and wider ranging at JB Hi-Fi.

Foldables Driving Growth

Foldables are a big part of the story. Carrier and IDC research shows demand for foldable models in Australia has grown 25%, and Motorola is one of the brands gaining from it.

Globally, Motorola took 44% of US foldable shipments this year on the back of its Razr 2025 series. That growth came even after the Lenovo-owned company lifted prices to cover rising memory costs.

Motorola is now developing new foldable devices at its Chicago headquarters and is tipped to make major announcements at CES in January.

The new devices come as the foldable market changes shape. In H1 2026, flip-style shipments fell 47% year on year, while demand for book-style foldables rose on the back of new models from Samsung and Apple. ChannelNews understands Samsung is also considering dropping its flip phone due to falling demand.

Samsung Fold And Apple Duo

Demand for Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 is surging, and the company is scrambling for component supply.

Samsung took 1.44 million pre-orders for its foldables in Korea during a week-long window from 28 July to 3 August, beating the record set by the Galaxy Note10 in 2019. The Fold8 made up about 70% of those pre-orders.

In Europe, Fold8 and Fold8 Ultra sales were up 45% in the nine weeks after the 7 August launch, compared with the Fold7 a year earlier.

Apple’s first foldable, the Duo, has had a troubled start. Bloomberg Intelligence says Duo sales could beat its earlier estimate of 14 million units and US$28 billion for Apple’s fiscal 2027. Others doubt that after early units showed cracked screens, gaps and broken hinges.

Forecasters Split On Size Of Foldable Boom

Research groups agree foldables are growing but differ on how fast.

Counterpoint says cumulative foldable shipments will pass 100 million by the end of 2026, with 37% growth in 2027, the highest since 2022. It tips 6 million foldable iPhones in 2026, which would give Apple 25% share and second place behind Samsung on 38%. Chinese brands, including Motorola, hold the rest. Counterpoint says supply, not demand, will hold back Apple’s early ramp, and its 6 million figure is a ceiling rather than a base case.

Omdia is tipping more than 22 million units in 2026, with growth recovering to more than 22%. It forecasts 36 million units by 2028 and 45 million by 2030, still under 3% of total smartphone shipments.

IDC forecasts foldable shipments up 30% in 2026, with Apple taking 22% of units and 34% of sales value. That forecast was made before buyers began turning away from the Duo over its manufacturing faults.

Every forecaster still puts foldables at low single digits of global volume.

Overall Market Slump

Foldables are growing against a falling market. IDC says global smartphone shipments fell 22% in Q3 2026, the largest annual drop it has recorded for any quarter.

Australia is holding up better than most markets, but it is splitting in two. Premium sales are strong, the budget end is shrinking, and the memory-chip shortage is pushing prices up across the board. The second half of 2026 is proving weaker than the first.

Telsyte puts first-half sales at 3.87 million units, up 1% year on year. Apple took 49.4% of first-half sales, close to parity with Android.

Apple and Samsung lead the premium and ultra-premium segments. Motorola, Oppo, Google, Nothing and other Chinese brands are pushing upmarket and intensifying competition there.