More than half of those polled in a new survey in Australia believe that the country will enter a recession in the next year.

The quarterly Dye & Durham Australian Market Pulse survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic, however, outlined a slightly more optimistic outlook compared to its last survey.

The proportion of those who believe that Australia will head into a recession in the coming month has dropped four points to 54 per cent in the past three months.

Also, the number of people who anticipate that the nation will avoid recession has risen five points to 24 per cent since the last Pulse in December 2023.

The poll surveyed 1,610 Australians’ attitudes to the economy, the property market and technology.

The latest poll found that working people and those on higher incomes hold the position that their financial position will improve over the next 12 months.

More employed people (32 per cent) are of the opinion that their finances will improve over the next year than get worse (29 per cent), while 37 per cent of higher income earners believed their finances will get better over the next year compared with 26 per cent who believe they will get worse.

australian notes

This contrasts with the previous 12 months where 25 per cent of employed people thought their finances improved while 41 per cent believed they got worse, and 29per cent of higher income earners believe their finances improved while 38 per cent believed they got worse.

In all demographics, those who say that they will be better off over the next 12 months has risen to 26 per cent ( as compared to 24 per cent in December), while those who believe they will be worse off has fallen to 32 per cent (as compared to 33 per cent in December).

Dye & Durham Australia managing director, Dennis Barnhart, said the improved outlook was possibly a positive turning point for economic sentiment. “This could be the beginning of the end of the negative mood that has been sparked by rising interest rates and inflation,’’ said Barnhart. “Sentiment seems to be stabilising and heading in a more positive direction.’’

Two-thirds of Australians now believe inflation has peaked or will come down over the next year, while the same proportion of Australians think interest rates have either peaked or are about to begin falling.

Only one -hird of respondents believe interest rates will go up compared with 46 per cent in December.

In November last year, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hike its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, a 12-year high to force inflation to keep falling. That increase was the central bank’s 13th rate rise since May 2022.