According to Newzoo forecasts, console gaming revenue is set to grow 5.1% in 2026 to US$46.9 billion, with Grand Theft Auto 6 expected to provide a significant portion of that uplift.

Grand Theft Auto 6, which is scheduled for release in November, is shaping up as the critical growth engine for the global console games market in 2026, with Newzoo warning that console revenue would otherwise be flat year-on-year.

Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report forecasts console gaming revenue to grow 5.1% in 2026 to US$46.9 billion, with GTA 6 expected to provide a significant portion of that uplift.

The research firm expects full-game spending on consoles to jump 17.5%, making it the strongest-growing games business model in 2026.

The scale of the GTA 6 effect highlights the industry’s growing dependence on blockbuster releases to drive consumer spending and market growth.

According to Newzoo, GTA 6 and Nintendo Switch 2 are the two major drivers of console performance this year, with both expected to generate additional hardware and software spending.

It is also expected that GTA 6 will influence spending on other games, with the potential it will force publishers of other games to rethink their launch schedules around Rockstar’s November release.

For retailers, the opportunity for major hardware, accessories and software upgrades around the game’s launch is not lost with the impact having the potential to extend beyond GTA 6 itself. Newzoo suggests the game’s premium pricing is helping to push pricing expectations more broadly across the games market. 

While the research company also says it expects GTA 6’s influence to extend into 2027, there is a concern for the industry in what happens between these blockbuster launches. Without GTA 6, the underlying console revenue picture points to stagnation rather than meaningful growth.