In bad news for carriers and CE retailers, Australians are delaying the purchase of new smartphones, with the average replacement cycle blowing out from 2.8 years to 3.4 years, according to new Telsyte research.

Analysts warn the cycle could stretch further as the escalating cost of memory chips drives up device prices, with Australians now facing some of the sharpest smartphone price rises on record.

The average selling price of a smartphone in Australia is forecast to jump from A$1,113 in 2025 to A$1,253 this year, a rise of close to 12%, according to Omdia, while globally the average selling price is tipped to climb 21%, the largest annual increase the industry has recorded.

Apple Buyers Move Early To Dodge Price Hikes

Telsyte, which surveyed 2,023 Australian consumers, found that Apple users have been buying older models ahead of the September launch of new devices, in an effort to avoid paying up to A$300 more for a new iPhone 18.

Foad Fadaghi, managing director and principal analyst at Telsyte, claims that instead of waiting for the iPhone 18, many Australians have upgraded early.

The result, analysts are tipping, is that when the iPhone 18 lands in September, a large chunk of Apple’s customer base will have already upgraded, potentially suppressing sales.

Despite the pull-forward, Apple grew sales 2% in Australia and now commands 49% of the local market, according to the Telsyte data.

Memory Costs The Culprit

Behind the price surge is a global memory shortage, with DRAM and NAND flash contract prices climbing more than 80% quarter on quarter in early 2026 as AI data centre demand swallows chip capacity that would otherwise go into consumer devices.

Memory typically accounts for 10% to 15% of the bill of materials in a flagship smartphone, and as much as 20% in mid-range models, meaning brands have little choice but to pass costs on or cut specifications.

Apple chief executive Tim Cook has likened the memory problem to a natural disaster.

Consumers are already copping the fallout. In July, Samsung Australia was forced to lift the price of its top-tier Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra by A$100, with the division that sells mobiles, TVs and appliances recently reporting a loss. Earlier this year, Samsung’s Galaxy S26 range launched locally at prices up to A$250 higher than the models they replaced.

Higher Prices Here To Stay

Even if it doesn’t sell well, the iPhone 18 will still have an important strategic role to play for Apple, Fadaghi says.

“It might be a way to substantially increase prices, in a way that will soften the blow of increased prices in future years.”

With Apple expected to unveil its first folding phone in September, tipped to be priced above A$3,000 and by some estimates closer to A$3,600, higher prices might be here to stay.

For Australian consumers, the message is blunt: the sub-A$1,000 flagship is dead, foldables are marching towards A$4,000, and the memory crunch shows no sign of easing before 2027.