Adobe is forecasting a strong holiday sales period for appliances in the US, with discounts expected to peak at 18 per cent and shoppers increasingly using promotional events to trade up to more expensive models.

The company’s 2026 holiday forecast projects US online spending of US$275.1 billion across November and December, up 6.7 per cent year-on-year. Adobe expects Black Friday to deliver the deepest appliance discounts, while Cyber Week is set to drive a sharp uplift across several appliance categories.

Vacuum cleaner sales are forecast to jump 930 per cent during Cyber Week compared with the January to August daily average, making them one of the strongest-performing categories in the report. Small kitchen appliances are expected to rise 840 per cent, while electronic personal care appliances are tipped to increase 750 per cent.

Adobe also expects consumers to use holiday promotions to move into more premium appliance tiers. The unit share of the highest-priced appliance products is forecast to increase 41 per cent compared with normal shopping periods, suggesting discounting may encourage buyers to spend more rather than simply seek the cheapest option.

That trade-up effect is also expected in other categories, with electronics forecast to see a 55 per cent lift in the share of premium products sold and sporting goods up 53 per cent.

The report puts peak appliance discounts at 18 per cent, compared with the 19.2 per cent benchmark used in Adobe’s 2026 forecast. However, Adobe’s final 2025 holiday results showed appliance discounts ultimately reached 20.2 per cent, suggesting last year’s realised discounting was deeper than the comparison figure used in this year’s outlook.

Across the broader retail market, Adobe expects Cyber Week to generate US$47.5 billion in online sales, accounting for 17.3 per cent of November and December e-commerce spending. Cyber Monday is forecast to become the first US$15 billion online shopping day at US$15.1 billion, while Black Friday spending is expected to rise 9.2 per cent to US$12.9 billion.

Discounting is expected to build through November, with average reductions reaching around 14 per cent early in the month, 21 per cent immediately before Thanksgiving and approximately 30 per cent across Cyber Week before easing in December.

Mobile shopping is also expected to continue gaining ground, with smartphones forecast to account for 57.4 per cent of holiday e-commerce revenue, equivalent to US$158.1 billion.

Adobe is also forecasting further growth in AI-assisted shopping, with traffic from generative AI tools to retail websites expected to increase 130 per cent year-on-year. Its survey found 69 per cent of consumers who had used AI during the shopping process said they were less likely to return a product purchased with AI assistance.

The forecast is based on Adobe Analytics data covering more than one trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million stock-keeping units across 18 product categories and a survey of 5,000 US consumers.

While the figures relate to the US market, the data points to continued strength in appliance promotions around Black Friday and Cyber Week, particularly in categories such as floorcare and small kitchen appliances where deal-driven demand is expected to surge.