Retails Sales Down, Expected To Rise In November
Sales consumption for the retail sector has plummeted for the third consecutive monthly fall in August – down by $1.9 billion on pre-delta lockdown levels.
In its latest consumer confidence survey, ANZ found that inflation expectations have been lifted to the highest level since 2014 which could bring back the bounce expected in the retail sector once restrictions are lifted.
“High inflation expectations at a time of weak wage growth could drag on overall consumer confidence if people start to worry about the cost of living,” ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank said.
National retail sales fell 1.7 per cent in August down six per cent since May.
The biggest falls were recorded in Canberra at nearly 20 per cent, NSW at 14 per cent and Victoria down to 6.6 per cent.
Plank said consumer sentiment sided with lead prices, and the latest results came after a spike in the consumer price index and petrol prices.
“At this level, expectations would suggest nothing too worrying, but do they stabilise here, or do they keep rising?” the Australian Financial Review had quoted him as saying.
In a note to clients, ANZ’s research team said the supply shocks that have rippled across the globe since the pandemic hit ‘are unlikely to be contained until the pandemic ends’.
Retail spending is expected to remain low throughout this month and the early weeks of October with improvements taking place in November thanks to large-scale sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.