2024 is expected to be the year the smartphone market bounces back, with a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC), indicating smartphone shipments are tipped to reach 1.20 billion, growing 2.8% year over year, as well as a growth in the low single digits through to 2028.
Overall volumes are still below pre-pandemic levels, however, the IDC expects the market has corrected itself, and will move on from the bottom.
Group Vice President with IDC’s Worldwide Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, Ryan Reith said, “It’s been a challenging run for the smartphone market, even when looking at the years leading into the pandemic.”
“While the world continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment, several device categories that compete for a share of wallet are seeing a return to growth, including personal computers. IDC firmly believes the smartphone will remain the quintessential device for most, but ongoing price increases and the improved durability of today’s smartphones supports an already lengthened replacement cycle, which will dampen new shipment growth.”
Key drivers in the overall recovery of the market are device replacement cycles and rising demand in emerging markets. Recent technological developments have also brought in new energy.
Most notably, foldable smartphones continue growing rapidly, with a year-over-year growth of 37% expected, and shipments expected to reach 25 million in 2024.
Additionally, AI has sparked interest in the next-gen AI experiences on handheld devices.
Research Director with IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, Nabila Popal said, “Although total smartphone shipments remain below pre-pandemic levels, the good news is that consumers are willing to pay more for their phones. This will be further fueled by innovations in foldables and the idea of next-gen AI on a device.”
“IDC forecasts 170 million next-gen AI smartphones will ship in 2024, representing almost 15% of the total smartphone market and surpassing even AI PCs. Next-gen AI smartphones will grow rapidly beyond 2024 as use cases evolve and industry players continue to push forward the NPU technology. While AI will impact all devices, smartphones will be the device driving the AI revolution into every home.”
