China won’t step away from its strict zero-Covid policy until the new financial year at the very earliest, warns global forecaster Oxford Economics.
This is despite expectations that China will start increasing production soon, following months of disruption across several Beijing districts that has seen Apple suppliers struggle to fill orders.
Yesterday, China reported 26,824 new local cases, nearing its peak in April.
“From an epidemiological and political perspective, we do not think the country is ready yet to open up,” Oxford senior economist Louise Loo says, noting Oxford’s take is “a more cautious view” than consensus.
“In our view, policymakers remain intensely cognizant of the potential ramifications of a disruptive health crisis associated with easing Covid restrictions too quickly, too soon,” Loo writes.
Oxford Economics expects China to open up in after June, at the very earliest.
“This timing reflects China’s political calendar, with the annual “Two Sessions” plenary meetings in Mar-23 and the unveiling of key economic policy directions during this time, as well as our assessment that China would not be sufficiently prepared epidemiologically for a reopening until mid-2023,” Loo concluded.
