CE and appliance retailers could be facing a torrid last quarter of 2023, with analysts now tipping the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates after inflation rose 1.2%, due in part to a significant rise in fuel costs.
Also contributing to the rise was an increase in electricity bills, with the latest numbers revealing that inflation is still going up from the 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter. A 2.2 per cent lift in rents in the quarter also contributed to the rise.
The good news is that consumer price growth is down from 6% in June to 5.4% in September according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
At the end of last year this number was running at 7.8%.
According to several retailers that ChannelNews has spoken to replacement goods such as those that have failed or need replacement are driving sales.
At Apple shops, JB Hi Fi and The Good Guys as well as at carriers such as Optus and Telstra demand for the new iPhone 15 brange is significantly higher than with the previous model.
According to several people most retailers are out of stock of the new iPhone with some retailers telling buyers that it could be Christmas or even after before they are able to get a new model iPhone 15.
Currently most CE retailers are betting on Black Friday sales to grow revenues ahead of the traditional holiday period.
The consensus forecast among economists was for a quarterly lift in the consumer price index of 1.1 per cent, and an annual increase of 5.3 per cent, suggesting the latest consumer price report could fuel a rate hike on Melbourne Cup day.
The latest figures come just hours after Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy warned the spike in petrol costs could delay the return of inflation back to the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target range, the Australian reported.
Dr Kennedy, speaking at Senate estimates ahead of the ABS data release, said “in the near term, there will be volatility in headline inflation”.
“We have observed this in other countries, particularly increases in headline inflation driven by petrol, and we are likely to see similar instances in Australia,” he said.
“However, we still expect inflation to steadily fall towards the target band, although its descent towards the target band may be slower than initially expected due to the high petrol prices.”
This would be a cause for concern for RBA governor Michele Bullock, who on Tuesday evening said the central bank would “not hesitate” to hike again if there was a “material” lift in the inflation outlook.
Dr Kennedy also said that a worsening Middle East conflict could trigger a spike in global oil prices that would “quickly” boost inflation and lower growth around the world.