In the matter of Steve Jobs' health and Apple's future, the dearth of known facts has left the door open for unbridled speculation, and when confronted with such a situation, I always find it useful to turn to that seer in a sphere, the Magic 8 Ball. Here's what came up through the dark little window.
Q: Do we really know the nature of the condition that forced Jobs to take a medical leave of absence until June? A: My reply is no. For what it's worth, sources told the New York Times that it's not a recurrence of the pancreatic cancer for which he was treated in 2004, but rather a condition that is preventing his body from absorbing food, with stress as a possible aggravating factor. And Bloomberg quotes a surgeon suggesting that Jobs may need to have his pancreas removed, leaving him to manage a tricky insulin regimen.
Q: Have Apple and Jobs lost some credibility in the handling of this story? A: It is decidedly so. Apple has tried to play this down the middle, balancing Jobs' desire for privacy with its legal obligations to investors, and the results have been vague and contradictory. Writes the NYT's Joe Nocera, "The most indispensable chief executive in the United States, beloved by customers and investors for his magnificent turnaround of the company he founded — and for the amazing gadgets his company produces — can no longer be trusted on the subject of whether he is healthy enough to continue running the company."
Q: Will Apple be all right during Jobs' absence? A: Signs point to yes. COO Tim Cook, whose interim stint at the top could be anything from temporary seat-warming duty to a try-out for a possible post-Jobs promotion, may not have the visionary qualities of his boss, but he's regarded as a cool and calm pragmatist. "He's one of those guys who just gets things done," said analyst Tim Bajarin. "But he's been with Steve long enough that he knows how he thinks. He's been working for years with this steady mantra of, 'What would Steve do?' And then whatever he decides, he puts solid business principles behind it." And Gartner analyst Van Baker said, "The notion that Steve's involved in every decision on a day-to-day basis is just ridiculous. I don't think the impact (of his absence) is going to be significant," before adding, "If it goes beyond June, it's a different story."
Q: But Jobs will be coming back to work eventually, right? A: Reply hazy, try again. Really, who knows? Endpoint Technologies analyst Roger Kay, for one, thinks not. "My bet is he's not coming back," said Kay, whose resume does not appear to include any medical training. "Despite all the protestations, I think he has cancer. They talk about digestive this and digestive that, but ... forget all the buzz you're hearing. Just look at the photos."
Q: Is it possible to make an accurate medical diagnosis by looking at a photo? A: My sources say no.
Q: Will Apple survive, no matter how all this plays out? A: You may rely on it.